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Inventory pressure & cost drag, when will PTA pick up?

Release Date:2019-01-03 Number of Times Read:2596

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During the New Year's Day, the PTA market was light, and the negotiated price was 5900-6100 yuan/ton. In January, the polyester factory gradually entered the overhaul state, and the demand dropped to the negative PTA market. Later, with the production inspection of polyester and the restart of the PTA maintenance device, the PTA supply pattern will change from tight to loose, and in the market, it is expected to be short-term. The internal PTA market is dominated by shocks.

PTA profit is acceptable, cost support weakens

Although the PTA load decreased slightly this week, from the processing profit point of view, the current PTA production profit is still acceptable, PTA-PX spread is maintained at 900-1000 yuan / ton, compared to the current production cost of 600 yuan / ton not bad. Under the condition that the downstream demand is weak, why is the profit of PTA still acceptable? Mainly because of the weak operation of crude oil, the price of naphtha and PX also fell. The PX production spread also fell back to $480/ton.

The polyester unit began to drop and the inventory was stable.

Near the Chinese New Year polyester plant began to drop, the market has already made sufficient expectations, the market is still acceptable at the rate of 2% decline in the current week, unless there is a collapse-type drop, the negative impact of the demand side on the price.

Last week, the inventory of various products in the industrial chain remained basically stable, and PTA inventory was at a low level, but it was under pressure from the late stage. The polyester inventories were at a medium-to-high level, and the PX inventory was high. It was also heard that the ship was delayed due to inventory reasons. The inventory of terminal grey cloth was high. At the end of December, the inventory of Shengze grey cloth was around 33-35 days. There were few new orders before the festival, and the grey cloth inventory was difficult to be digested smoothly. The weaving factory's enthusiasm for the purchase of polyester filaments declined. At the end of December, the production and sales of polyester filaments were obvious. Fallback, daily average production and sales are mostly 40% -55%.

With the maintenance of polyester filament factory as the mainstay, the polyester start-up load will drop sharply in January, and the polyester plant's rigid demand for PTA will be weakened. Before and after the Spring Festival, the polyester repair and production capacity was about 8 million tons/year. However, the PTA factory has no maintenance inspections in the same period. The negative demand will lead the market, and the PTA market price will be under pressure.

On the whole, the upstream is affected by the high production volume of US crude oil and the suspicion of Russia's production cuts. The overall fortune of crude oil is weak, and the cost end support is still weak and has greater flexibility. From the perspective of the downstream polyester end, due to seasonal changes in production and sales, many factories have arranged parking maintenance or shutdown plans in advance. The superimposed terminal is still in a weak state, production and sales are sluggish, and demand is still weak. In the absence of a significant rebound in oil prices, the PTA is still operating in a short position.


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